More thoughts on ‘garages’ of the future – they won’t exist!
Here’s our revised, mocked up vision of ‘the petrol station of the future’.
We’ve been discussing the charging of electric cars in previous posts and I’d suggested a vision of rows of charging posts and it taking 20 minutes or so to fill your car up while you surfed the net or otherwise chilled out. In a nutshell.
Two good counter points were made – we’d need big garages if it took that long to fill up (to hold all the cars) and why not swap batteries instead.
I think the case against swappable batteries is pretty clear, primarily that we just won’t need them and secondarily that it would be a huge undertaking to standardise car designs to accept a common ‘cassette’ and we’re talking maybe 100 Kilos each – that’s a hefty thing to just ‘swap’.
On the question of how many charging posts we’d need at these new garages, I pointed out that most of us (70% - I stand corrected that it’s not all) could charge at home each night and so would only need a ‘garage’ on long journeys. How long typical car journeys are, I thought, is going to be key to this.
I went away and did some digging and it’s altered fundamentally how I see garages of the future – I don’t think we’ll have any!
It turns out that less than 1% of all car journeys are above 100 miles. There are no figures above 150 miles, which is easily possible with today’s batteries – but it would follow that it’s a smaller number again. Some people talk of 200 miles being possible now – certainly in the future we can expect that. So far (far) less than 1% of cars on the road at any one time will need a filling station – as we know them.
There are 27 Million cars on the road today by the way – re-fuelled by under 10,000 petrol stations. Clearly we don’t all want fuel at the same time – except when there’s a scare on – otherwise that would be 2,700 car visits per garage per day. The fuel tank range of cars is a buffer, a vast rolling fuel tank. And so it will be with batteries. The big difference will be that we can fill up our cars at home and for most people (70%) and most journeys 99%+ that will be enough.
If just half a 1% of cars on the road were on journeys their batteries could not support (ie 200 miles or more) - which is a very reasonable ‘if’, then in theory, if it takes say four times longer to charge batteries than it does to fill with petrol (20 minutes versus five minutes) – we’d need four times one half a % of existing garages (if you follow). I make that 200 garages max, to simply meet the capacity – not taking location into account.
But if you factor in the probability of charging points in car parks and supermarkets – giving the chance to charge at your destination, for the return leg (doubling the range before a garage is required) I think we’ll need virtually no garages at all. Maybe a few on the motorway network – but then again, they can be in car parks.
Petrol Stations are destined to be extinct.
Where does this leave Oil companies?
With no liquid fuels to make and deliver (though they’ll try and foist Hydrogen on us first) and no retail outlets. There’s no future for them, except as reborn renewable energy companies. Or footnotes in history.
Roll on the day.
What I’m getting at is partly the fact that a relatively small handful of oil companies (and countries) control most of the worlds oil supply & wealth. Not only that but we can not reasonably harvest oil or even large quantities of biofuels in our back gardens, so we are wholey reliant on and vulnerable to these few countries/companies. In my opinion this level of vast power is corrupting & inhibitive to progress on many wider issues.
Although I don’t know for sure, I would suspect hydrogen could be monopolised too all be it, to a lesser extent. I presume afterall we won’t be allowed to manufacture hydrogen at home, due to the ‘Hindenburg’ factor!!? However I can generate electricity at home, there are already some gadgets on the market to do that - renewably or otherwise!
I’m not against business in theory and I know vast wealth will always exist in energy, but I do think this level of global business is inherently very destructive.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6wMYQG-szU
Comment by chris — July 3, 2008 @ 3:07 pm
http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-9908050-54.html
Time will tell.
Comment by chris — July 4, 2008 @ 6:09 pm
I often remind people that say oil companies will always be around in some form of this fact……Not one of the big locomotive companies of the late 1800’s in the USA are still going.
Everyone in the country thought these would be the big players in the automotive industry. Wrong.
10 or even 5 years ago, if you asked someone who would be the big names in electric cars of the future, you would have been given GM and Ford as answers……….Wrong again, they are just not able to adapt fast enough and are full of self preserving employees who dont want change that will endanger their jobs.
Thats why its new fresh companies that will be the leaders in not only the way we power our cars but also how we buy them, and who we buy them from.
I can see a time when we buy power for our cars like we buy air time for phones, all in plans where you pay £??? a month for all you can eat power, just like data now on mobile networks. Pay as you go plans for people on lower incomes/infrequent users. Different power companies/charging points could offer competing deals just like the mobile networks do……..
Comment by Paul F — July 8, 2008 @ 2:44 pm
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/07/city-london-electric-vehicle-parking.php
Rgds
Damon
Comment by Damon Hart-Davis — July 8, 2008 @ 5:39 pm
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/07/10/altairnano_grid_power_sale/
Rgds
Damon
Comment by Damon Hart-Davis — July 10, 2008 @ 12:52 pm
Comment by nommo — July 11, 2008 @ 9:10 am
Much to the disgust and chagrin of alpha (oil) males and shareholders the world over - I think you may be right.
I.C.E is soooo last century!
Comment by bob — July 11, 2008 @ 1:37 pm
To use existing highway infrastructure, US drivers will need to be better convinced that the battery will hold, especially on the way back.
But then, hopefully rural areas and large metros will figure out how to better serve those people and connect hinterlands to the city without using Auto-Freeways.
/rant/ re: Photo :: The poor station franchisee is left holding the bag dumped onto him by the sHell Oil, who won’t offer a dime to rehab the petrol-soaked lot into something more useful.
Comment by Jack — July 11, 2008 @ 1:52 pm
I work in one of Ford’s Product Development centres in Europe and not too long ago we saw some of their hydrogen ICE and fuel cell prototypes. It appeared that in larger vehicles (i.e. American ones) they worked best as they didn’t encroach on cabin space. That was simply because the larger vehicles had more space either under the bonnet or even under the body itself.
I think the same principle may also hold true for electric. There is more room for batteries, so the larger vehicles can hold more or bigger batteries, therefore bigger range! But I imagine it will use a lot of energy! To me it sounds wrong though, like I’m advocating big trucks for electric powertrains. What does anyone else think about this?
Comment by Jeff — July 14, 2008 @ 5:14 pm
Comment by Phil — July 18, 2008 @ 12:32 am
So if we are getting fuel from the supermarket and taking more than 20 mins to grab groceries to check-out it leaves enough time for the car to charge-up in the carpark. That’s unless (and preferable?) we stay at home and wait for the electric (Ocado) van to deliver.
Hang on - that’s how we got our bread milk and basic groceries before we had supermarkets.
Plus ca change, plus c’est la meme chose
Comment by Stuart — July 18, 2008 @ 10:20 am
I have to disagree with you on oil companies and the money they make out of petrol retail. It’s a core business to them and when world oil prices spike like they have recently (doubled this year) they make a killing because their oil does not cost more to produce, but they get to increase pump prices. And, if you were right and they made very little and would be glad to be out of retail - they just would get out of it. Witness Shell and it’s offshore decision - not enough money in it so they walked. There’s noting altruistic in big oil companies, if it doesn’t pay well they don’t do it. Cheers.
Comment by dale — July 21, 2008 @ 8:30 am
The most efficient way of energy saving is insulating our homes. We can further reduce our reliance on fuel for transport by making lighter, more energy efficient cars. We have chosen not to do this to any great extent. This however would only serve to make us feel that we are at least trying to do something. The trouth is, because of man’s selfish attitude we are, i think, unlikely to make any difference to the reduction in global warming. Not long ago China (and India)had bicicles as their modes of transport, now they have cars and they are increasing at an exponential rate. In order to make any difference to the increase in global warming we need to develope alternative energy strategies and systems at a phenominal rate and globally. We need politicians and world leaders of trmendous strength, intelligence immagination and integrity to be able to facillitate this! Its just not going to happen, they are not there!
For all that, Dale is doing a great job, if anything, this is the way forward but we need many more Dales in many more countries.
Comment by Gwyn Jenkins — July 31, 2008 @ 11:07 am
The woman on the Smart EV stand said the Smart EV is due for release in 2010. I asked why it was taking so long. She said to me that they’re waiting for the charging infrastructure to be built and that the oil companies are very reluctant to put charging points in their stations.
I told her that if this was true I knew of a renewable company called Ecotricity that are very enthusiastic about the electric car, and they should make a deal together!! ! Smart should be giving free Ecotricity for a year with each Smart EV??! How about it Dale?
Comment by Chris — August 1, 2008 @ 11:02 am
I have driven an electric car (a Citroen Berlingo Electrique) as my only car for the last 6 years, for most of that time powered by Ecotricity electricity.
It has a range of 60 miles and a top speed of 64 miles an hour, and runs on relatively old technology - Nickel Cadmium batteries.
My commute is 34 miles for the round trip and I drive throughout the day for work. It is not uncommon for me to drive over a hundred miles in a day. At this point, the vehicle has done over 81000 miles from new.
So while I would agree - for most people they would only need to recharge at home - for me I often need to choose elsewhere. Even so, it is not impossible, even without the current infrastructure. After all, there are many plug sockets in the country, and an ordinary plug socket and an extension lead is all you need.
My employers (county council) have been persuaded to put in an external charging point for me that I use when in meetings. And on the rare occasions when I have not enough range, I am fortunate to have access to a petrol work car.
Even long trips are not impossible, if you are prepared to take some time. I recently drove from Shropshire to fife in Scotland, charging up at friends, family, caravan sites and pubs!
Within the next year or so I am planning on buying a Chinese electric car, the BYD F3e. It has a range of 170 miles, 80 mph speed and if you have access to a 3 phase output you can get a hundred plus miles of charge in ten minutes with their lithium batteries. It seems to retail at around £15000.
Dale, is there any possibility of charging electric vehicles at your windturbine sites - can you get a 240 v output, or are there technical reasons why you couldn’t? And could you plan to have charging bays within future developments? It would certainly help with long journeys, and make for some good photo opportunities….:)
There is a private company called Electromotive recently set up a charging network within shopping centres in major cities. There is also a community initiative I have found about and used through the Battery Vehicle Society, where members allow other members to charge at their homes.
By the way, it is exciting that you have approval for the wind turbines at Lotus in Norfolk - am I right in thinking this is where the initial Tesla electric cars are being made? I know some of them are destine for California to be charged by PV - an overall inspiringingly low carbon footprint.
Best Wishes, Steve Thayne.
Comment by Steve Thayne — August 4, 2008 @ 12:35 pm
http://uk.reuters.com/article/pressReleases/idUKN1238193020080613
Some data about the UK from the UKPIA Statistical Review 2008 :-
Aggregated financial performance of UKPIA member companies
The combined financial figures (based on published accounts) of the oil companies which are UKPIA members, show that over the last 5 years they averaged a return on their capital tied up in refining and marketing of about 7.5%, or equivalent to a profit of around 1p on every litre of fuel sold. This compares very poorly with other industries. For example, the average return on capital employed for all UK manufacturing companies over the same period was 9.3%.
http://www.ukpia.com/industry_information/industry_data.aspx
More data about the decline in forecourts :-
http://www.igd.com/cir.asp?menuid=51&cirid=111
Increases in crude prices push up costs at every step of the supply chain. You have increased demand from the petrochemicals sector, limited refining capacity, uncertainty about energy policy (witness the current biofuels debacle), higher transportation costs and ever more in depth reporting to Governmental bodies (DBERR, HMRC, RFA etc). There are also costs being passed on from the non-fuel side of forecourt retailing. Given more and more forecourts are now convenience stores, the grocery costs have a greater influence. The suppliers are passing on increased food prices to the retailers, which is also impacting margins.
I fully support what Ecotricity are doing (I’m a customer), but the energy debate is not helped by factually incorrect assertions.
Phil
Comment by Phil — August 6, 2008 @ 11:30 pm
Comment by dale — August 21, 2008 @ 3:52 pm
Good to know an electric Smart car is coming, it’s crying out to be done. It’s exactly the car we’re looking for for a company car share fleet - thought we’d have to build our own….:) I think the infrastructure explanation/excuse is a bit lame though, Smart cars are city and town focussed things, the kind of car that doesn’t go far enough to need charging away from home - typically. Probably just some corporate spin. Cheers.
Comment by dale — August 21, 2008 @ 3:56 pm
You pretty well prove that what we’re talking about here can be done. You manage with a range of 60 miles, within a year or two I reckon 200 miles will be possible. As the range goes up the need for ‘in journey charging’ goes down.
Charging at our turbine sites is possible in principle, and we hope to do some in a limited way. In practice a lot of our sites are quite remote and you’d need to drive off the beaten track to find them, which might be self defeating a bit. And then there’s a few health and safety issues we’d have. Turbines like the one at Green Park though could work as charging stations, it’s just off the M4 after all, so no real detour from a major transport route. Might be a bit of fun to set that up too, I’m going to think on it.
Actually, now you come to mention it, we’ve building a series of turbines soon at motorway services (not announced it yet so can’t give more details) - they would be perfect sites to provide some charging from. That is a really exciting possibility. I’ll see if we can factor this into our plans.
Re Lotus, yes you’re right, they make the Tesla Roadster at the moment at Hethel. I think that by the time we build our turbines, late next year we hope, production may have switched to the US, but maybe not - in which case the Tesla will be built 100% using wind energy. Which would be pretty cool.
Cheers.
Comment by dale — August 22, 2008 @ 9:48 am
phewee. there’s an understatement if ever i saw one. bring on the crunched numbers. seems pretty impossible to me in my head.
More importantly, is it worth it?
Rather than a world where people are expected to commute vast milages every day, and where the vast majority of journeys are under 5 miles - a journey that could easily be cycled - how about a world without cars. Without congestion, without 3000+ people killed on British roads each year, with communities centred around living streets not traffic hell, without all that smug machismo that sees these things as desirable and part of life.
All this effort needs redirecting… we don’t need to save the car!
Comment by Peter Pannier — September 5, 2008 @ 3:32 pm